Estimation.
3-point estimates (optimistic/realistic/pessimistic), risk-adjusted timelines, story sizing, complexity assessment, project timeline prediction.
4 reference docs · 88 KB installed · stryx-estimation
PERT, Sprint Velocity, Risk Buffers.
HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE is the hardest question in software. This skill applies PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique): every task gets three estimates, weighted by risk profile. Sprint velocity tracking smooths the noise over time. Complexity scoring (Fibonacci 1,2,3,5,8,13) instead of hours.
Four recipes.
PERT 3-point estimates
For each task: O (optimistic), R (realistic), P (pessimistic). Expected = (O + 4R + P) / 6. Standard deviation = (P - O) / 6. Honest uncertainty in the number.
Risk-adjusted buffers
Multiply estimate by risk multiplier: 1.0 (familiar), 1.5 (some unknowns), 2.0 (lots of unknowns), 3.0 (research project). Stop pretending unknowns do not cost time.
Sprint velocity tracking
Story points completed per 2-week sprint. 4-sprint moving average smooths out individual blowouts. Use the average for next-sprint commitment.
Complexity vs effort
Story points are COMPLEXITY (cyclomatic, conceptual), not HOURS. A 13-point story might take 1 day or 1 week -- but it IS more complex than a 5-point one.
It composes.
Skills compose into workflows. Estimation is rarely the only skill you will use — it pairs naturally with these others in the library.
One command.
Installs only stryx-estimation (skip the other 19) into ~/.claude/skills/stryx-estimation/.
Free for all use.
Stryx Labs License v1.0. Use Estimation in personal, commercial, internal, and production work. No attribution required.